This is the offensive that was supposed to be the apocalypse We have a hood for now

More and more observers of the war are convinced that we are seeing what was predicted to be the near apocalypse The Ukrainians themselves reported hundreds of thousands of Russians who will launch a major offensive in winter/spring.

Visions of an attack from Belarus, Kiev or Kharkov were drawn Meanwhile, since the end of January, we see something completely different.

Just more head banging on the same pieces of wall as I've been doing for months And without great results.

Traditionally, not counting Bachmutu Assessing the effectiveness of the Russians' actions after moving the front line, they are doing very badly.

It remains an open question how many people and equipment they will lose, and how much the Ukrainians will lose, and what will be the ratio of these losses to the forces they have Because it is a key issue in the long run, not square kilometers.

However, precise information of this kind will be known only after the war, although it will tell a lot in the coming months whether Ukraine will have the courage for another major offensive Traditionally the most difficult point For now, however, it is the Russians who are trying to move forward.

They only manage to do so in the Bakhmut area, although they are invariably slow and costly steps forward Although unfortunately quite methodical and continuous.

What is most important is the Russian efforts to cut off Bakhmut from the hinterland Fighting in the city itself, on its eastern outskirts, among small single-family houses, does not bring significant results.

Maybe several quarters a week, although the Ukrainians regularly carry out small counter-attacks with, for example, one armored car and a few-man infantry squad It is obvious that the Russians will not take over the city from this direction.

At least not this semester Unfortunately, much more dangerous achievements are north of the city, where the Wagner group is mainly active.

Over the course of the past week, they managed to capture the entire village of Paraskowiwka This means creating an ever-larger breach in the existing Ukrainian defense lines north of Bakhmut.

The Russians advance further, heavily attacking the last two suburban villages that block their exit to the fields outside the city, through which the last supply roads run The situation in the Bakhmut area.

You can see how the encirclement of the city is formed Fig Militaryland.

net On the other side of the city, in the south, it's similar in that the Russians have only one village left to reach the mentioned fields - Iwanivskie This is where the regular army is expected to operate, and no serious progress has been made since the beginning of February.

The Ukrainians were to counterattack here on a limited scale and push back the Russians a bit and block their further advance It was not, however, anything like turning the tide of battle.

The Russians are still very close to the last supply lines Despite the difficult and almost goalless situation, the Ukrainians stick to Bachmut.

Perhaps, in the opinion of the Ukrainian command, it is worth it, because the Russians are throwing really large forces and resources into the assaults Brutally speaking, it is a meat grinder that grinds the numerous Russian troops, rebuilt with such difficulty over the past months.

In addition, it forces a serious consumption of ammunition, with which there are supposed to be problems The Wagner group accuses the military of supplying it in such meager quantities as to prevent further success.

Other volunteers and bloggers counter that the Wagnerians just started getting as much as everyone else and they were shocked In addition, they publish photos of crates with ammunition pulled out from the deepest recesses of warehouses, because they are completely rusted and falling apart.

It is impossible to say whether this is the result of a general shortage of ammunition, or lame and nibbled on logistics by the Ukrainians, or, for example, saving for some expected more intense fights Many places, similar effects In the north, intense fighting is taking place in the area of ​​forests west of Kremenna and north of Kupiansk.

In this first place, the Russians have been trying for the fourth week to break the Ukrainian defense and reach the line of the Żerebiec River to go further to Lyman There are several select Russian troops (if you can call them that after a year of war and the replacement of most of the composition), including airborne troops, or mechanized vehicles armed with the latest T-90M tanks.

No major effects The fights in the woods are difficult and brutal, fought over short distances.

The Russians initially managed to advance more clearly a few kilometers to the west, but for more than two weeks now, if there is any progress, it is minimal The situation is similar in the Kupiansk region, although there is relatively little news from this section.

It is quite clear, however, that the Russians initially advanced a few kilometers to the west in the area of ​​the town of Dvorichna, which is 15 kilometers north of Kupiansk and at the first bridge over the Oskil River in that direction However, they did not manage to reach the river itself and the crossing, they got stuck and have been standing like this for three weeks.

Svatowo-Kupiansk district The Russians are to be pressing especially to the north of this city, which can be seen from the arrows.

militaryland net Another area of ​​intense fighting is south of Bakhmut, in Avdiivka near Donetsk.

The Russians systematically renew even large attacks there, consisting of a dozen or so heavy vehicles and several dozen soldiers They all end up the same though.

Running into mines, coming under fire from artillery and anti-tank weapons, fleeing those who still can After one of the extremely unsuccessful attacks of this kind north of Avdiivka, there were claims that the Ukrainians took advantage of the situation and launched a successful local counterattack, but there is no confirmation of this.

There are no reports of moving the front The next axis of Russian attacks is Marinka, about 25 kilometers to the southwest.

Fighting for the city itself, or rather its ruins, has been going on since early autumn an effect such that it is controlled by about half, and the measure of Russian success is that it claims to have taken possession of the buildings across the street.

Over the past week, the frustrated Russians have launched strong attacks across the fields on either side of the ruins However, the Ukrainian defenses did not break through.

The last place where the Russians are advancing is another 25 kilometers southwest of Wuhledar From the end of January, the Russians suffered very heavy losses there and achieved practically nothing.

The Ukrainian defense is holding firm and, aside from losing some of the terrain which is rather a no-man's-zone, has not taken a step back It is difficult to understand what the goal of the Russian command is, which, despite this, sends more units to similar attacks time after time, possibly moving their axis of attack a few kilometers to the left or right.

It would seem that after almost a month of almost completely unsuccessful attacks, it would be wise to change your mind, but apparently that's not how it works in the Russian military Donetsk region.

The course of the front line has not changed much for over half a year Militaryland.

net As always, proportion of casualties will decide After nearly a month of intensified fighting and clear Russian pressure, it is becoming evident that this whole russian winter offensive is not what was expected It is clear that the Russians decided to attack harder in the area of ​​Kupiansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Wukhledar.

Increased strikes in these places began almost at the same time, in late January It's been a month, however, and there is no sign of any significant success anywhere.

Ukrainian defensive lines were not broken There is no information about that in some sections truly overwhelming forces would go on the attack, and the Ukrainian defense would barely hold on.

The exception is Bachmut, where intense fights have been going on for half a year, and now they have only gained intensity and the Ukrainians are in a really tough position What is most important, however, is that there are no signals indicating that the Ukrainian command is throwing significant reserves at any sections, the purpose of which would be to save the situation.

Even in the Bakhmut area It can be read that the Russian offensive failed to cause a crisis on the Ukrainian side anywhere.

The Ukrainians are certainly suffering losses, but apparently within the limits of what is acceptable On the other hand, everything indicates that the Russians do not have any significant additional forces in reserve, which they could throw somewhere on the exhausted Ukrainians and break their defenses in some section.

After so many weeks of fighting, it would be advisable, but it is also possible that, due to the lack of initial success, it was decided not to launch the next phase of the operation One way or another, everything indicates that the Ukrainians are quite confidently enduring the long-announced Russian winter offensive.

It remains to be hoped that the Russians are just losing a significant part of the troops rebuilt over the autumn months and thus lose the potential to carry out further major offensives for the coming months May the Ukrainians lose enough in defense of these forces so that they, in turn, have enough to try a more serious strike in the spring.

that, due to the lack of initial success, it was decided not to launch the next phase of the operation One way or another, everything indicates that the Ukrainians are quite confidently enduring the long-announced Russian winter offensive.

It remains to be hoped that the Russians are just losing a significant part of the troops rebuilt over the autumn months and thus lose the potential to carry out further major offensives for the coming months May the Ukrainians lose enough in defense of these forces so that they, in turn, have enough to try a more serious strike in the spring.

that, due to the lack of initial success, it was decided not to launch the next phase of the operation One way or another, everything indicates that the Ukrainians are quite confidently enduring the long-announced Russian winter offensive.

It remains to be hoped that the Russians are just losing a significant part of the troops rebuilt over the autumn months and thus lose the potential to carry out further major offensives for the coming months May the Ukrainians lose enough in defense of these forces so that they, in turn, have enough to try a more serious strike in the spring.

that the Russians are just losing a significant part of the troops rebuilt over the autumn months and thus lose the potential to carry out further major offensives for the coming months May the Ukrainians lose enough in defense of these forces so that they, in turn, have enough to try a more serious strike in the spring.

that the Russians are just losing a significant part of the troops rebuilt over the autumn months and thus lose the potential to carry out further major offensives for the coming months May the Ukrainians lose enough in defense of these forces so that they, in turn, have enough to try a more serious strike in the spring.

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